Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Superpower China 2040 & Goldman Sach's - hunting and killing China?
Joe: two comments;
1) Do you remember in the 1980's when Japan was going to take over the world? It didn't and I don't think China will either, I predict it will implode in some fashion because of economics or some political change. It happens, people can become too greedy or undisciplined. Do you remember the Italian Mafia, over time it lost its values and allowed undisciplined members too enter. The same kind of thing will happen to China I predict.
2) The author claims the government is underreporting economic growth. I claim the opposite, I think it is the case that the yuan / renminbi is overvalued and that the economic progress is as well. I hope more facts can be found out about the true growth rates and statistics. - Bob
Bob: interesting reading, see article below, some aspect of the article is the subject to debate. My take is it’s difficult to predict what could occur to the Chinese economy by 2040. PERHAPS WE COULD HAVE A WAR WITH CHINA, PERHPAS THE WEST MAY RETURN TO AN ECONOMIC PROTECTIONIST MODE. BROUGHT ABOUT BY POLOTCIAL UN REST IF THE WEST UNEMPLOYMENT DOES NOT IMPROVE. ROBERT FOGEL GIVES IT SOME CREDIABILTY, AGAIN A BRILLIANT JEW, SUPPORTS THE PREDICTION. I AM NOT A JEW BUT ADMIRE THE JEWISH RACE. I ONCE ASKED A GOOD JEWISH LEARNED FRIEND WHEN I WAS LIVING IN CANADA WHY THE JEWS ARE SO SUCESSFUL IN LAW, IN SCIENCE, AND BUSINESS. HE SAID BECAUSE WE SUFFERD DISCRIMINATION BY CHRISTIANS AND WERE TOLD BY OUR PARENTS YOU MUST EXCELL TO COMPETE WITH THOSE THAT DISCRIMNATE AGINST YOUR RACE. - JOE
by Paul B. Farrell, Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Commentary: By 2040, China's the new global super economy
Goldman's "ultimate goal is hunting and killing China," warns Li Delin, the Chinese author of "The Goldman Sachs Conspiracy," a bestseller in China.
Li is not as visually dramatic as Matt Taibbi's Rolling Stone picture of Goldman as a "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money." But Li's Chinese readers love his "Goldman Sachs knows when to go for your neck" like a "Manchurian tiger."
But is the Goldman Conspiracy really a threat to China? That's a joke, right? It's the exact opposite. In fact, it should be obvious that China is actually a "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of Goldman, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like Goldman's capital, talent and connections." Then, eventually, in a generation, by 2040, China will suck the life out of Goldman. At the same time, back here stateside, China must be quietly cheering as America's "bloodsucking vampire squid" sucks the life out of our capitalism and democracy, as the Goldman Conspiracy's insatiable greed aggressively sabotages America from within.
Get it? China is very effectively using the out-of-control Goldman Conspiracy greed machine as a vital weapon in China's two-pronged global strategy against America, over in China and back here in America. And tragically, Goldman's insatiable greed is so blinding that Goldman has lost the ability to see the long-term consequences of its sad un-American behaviour. Today, the Goldman Conspiracy is America's unfortunate Black Swan, a Trojan Horse helping our enemy abroad, undermining our economy back home. China: $123 trillion economy by 2040, three times bigger than America
All this became obvious while reading the Foreign Policy Journal. Earlier this year Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago published a feature article in Foreign Policy titled: "$123,000,000,000,000: Why China's Economy Will Grow to $123 Trillion by 2040." It's crucial to see why China is so successful, so prosperous while Americans are trapped in a paranoid self-destructive culture, why we're blinded, virtually incapable of thinking outside a box that's projecting years of high unemployment … as our suicidal war economy continues eating up roughly 50% of our tax dollars … as our ideological battles dig us deeper into debt … as our press keeps distracting us, focusing narrowly on self-serving warmongering wingnuts … as the actions of partisan leaders irresponsibly and unconsciously aid and abet China's grand strategy to replace America as the world's economic superpower … and as the Goldman Conspiracy sabotages us from within.
Read this and weep, or get mad as hell: By 2040, in just one generation, 30 years, here's how Fogel sees the rapidly emerging new world order, with China as the world's sole superpower economy and America a distant second, a has-been on the global stage, thanks in part to the Goldman Conspiracy and its influence on so many bad decisions in recent years. Fogel warns:
"In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per-capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a super rich country in 2040.
"Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per-capita wealth, according to my forecasts China's share of global GDP — 40% — will dwarf that of the United States (14%) and the European Union (5%) 30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like" by 2040. Yes, in one generation China's economy will be almost three times bigger than America's economy while our kids, the next generation of Americans, will still be digging out of the war deficits we've been piling on since 2000.
Fogel sees six reasons America will lose in this race with China:
1. China is rapidly turning into a capitalist consumer economy
Yes, "China's long-repressed consumerist tendencies" are exploding, says Fogel: "In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now." Get it? While we waste money fighting wars, while Goldman and Wall Street are transforming America into a plutocracy concentrating wealth in the hands of a few, China is becoming more capitalistic (and democratic).
"In the big Chinese cities, living standards and per-capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem 'high middle income,' with a clear, growing affinity for acquiring clothes, electronics, fast food, automobiles." That's China's future. Why? Because their new "government has made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China's economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers' appetite for acquisitions."
2. China's political system is now more capitalist than America's
"The Chinese political system is likely not what you think," says Fogel. Beijing is not always the boss: "Most economic reforms, including the most successful ones, have been locally driven and overseen." Today there's "more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking than many realize."
Fogel attends meetings of the Chinese Economists Society. Many economists are openly "critical of the Chinese government," will even "point out that the latest decision by the finance ministry is flawed or raise concerns about a proposed adjustment to the prices of electricity and coal … even publish a critical letter in a Beijing newspaper." Then a finance minister will meet and explore the ideas.
"Chinese economic planning has become much more responsive and open to new ideas than it was in the past." Yes, more capitalistic, and perhaps more democratic than us.
3. China's massive new investments in education
Fogel emphasizes that China is making "enormous investments" in education. And "educated workers are much more productive workers. … college-educated workers are three times as productive … a high school graduate is 1.8 times as productive as a worker with less than a ninth-grade education."
"China will be able to increase its high school enrolment rate to the neighbourhood of 100% and the college rate to about 50% over the next generation" adding "more than 6 percentage points to the country's annual economic growth rate." Meanwhile, America wastes trillions fighting wars, running up massive debts, shortchanging education, letting China win the race to 2040.
4. China's rural economy of 700 million adding to growth rate
When envisioning the future, we "picture Shanghai high-rises and Guangdong factories," says Fogel. "But changes afoot in the Chinese countryside have made it an under-appreciated economic engine."
From 1978 to 2003 China's labor productivity averaged about 6% annually in industry and services. But in the future, productivity rates will increase for those still living in rural areas, over half of China, about 700 million. "That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today," and will keep growing as the next generation adds another hundred million to China.
5. China's government statistics actually underreporting progress
Fogel warns us not to be fooled by reports that "Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways." Just the opposite: "Chinese statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress."
In the service sector "small firms often don't report their numbers to the government and officials often fail to adequately account for improvements in the quality of output." As in America, "official estimates of GDP badly underestimate national growth" because they don't "take into account improvements in services such as education and health care." Why? Because "most great advances in these areas aren't fully counted in GDP." This is a problem worldwide, "but the rapid growth of China's service sector makes the underestimation more pronounced."
6. By 2040 China will be the world's sole super-economy … again
"To the West, the notion of a world in which the center of global economic gravity lies in Asia may seem unimaginable. But it wouldn't be the first time. … China was the world's largest economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries. … While Europe was fumbling in the Dark Ages and fighting disastrous religious wars, China cultivated the highest standards of living in the world. Today, the notion of a rising China is, in Chinese eyes, merely a return to the status quo."
So thanks in a large part to the Goldman Conspiracy — whose capital, talent and connections are being siphoned off by China, while the same Goldman Conspiracy sabotages capitalism and democracy here in America — China will be the world's sole superpower by 2040 with an economy three times bigger than America's.
COMMENTS BY READER.
What egocentric America doesn't realize, is that this will happen much sooner than 2040. Asia now has our once mighty manufacturing/industrial complex & wealth generator. All we have left is the ability consume their cheap goods and fight wars of aggression with the money they loan us. And soon, when they cut the money off, we won't even be able to do that. The end game is much closer than you realize