The views expressed in any article published in this blog are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Joseph Foster or Bob Lupoli.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Egypt & Democracy

By Joseph Foster, author "Destruction of America", sub-titled ‘’Stand up for America’’

Idealistically speaking we all aspire to Democracy that the people without undue influence by big money, or misrepresentation by a corrupt politician that wants to be elected, or the outright purchase of the voters by handing each voter one dollar per vote as the practice in some third world countries.

The debate as to Mubarak thirty years rule as a tyrant leader will continue, the question posed what did Mubarak accomplish for his country? Based on western report and the World Bank his economic achievement for Egypt cannot be denied. Before the revolution started Mubarak iron clad rule prevented extremist groups such as The Muslim brotherhood and others linked to Hezbollah or Al Qaeda from gaining power. It must be remembered Mubarak and Sadat whom was assassinated are part of the Egyptian military establishment, the Egyptian high ranking military officers remain loyal to Mubarak, ion the end persuaded him to resign, and I am sure they told him they will have a watchful eye and prevent radical and extremist element from being elected, the election of a radical group will create a major loss to the Egyptian military in terms of loss of US aid

The man now at the apex of Egypt is Defense Minster Tantawi, known as Mubarak loyal supporter. He will rebuild the apparatus of autocracy by dispersing superficial powers such as the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremist to a fractured opposition, while maintaining the Army power that existed under the Mubarak regime.

The military has promised the people democratic change, but that change will by no means restore Egypt to full democracy, the Generals are no reformers and their action to push out Mubarak was to ensure the survival of the ruling system the military has intertwined since the era of Anwar Sadat and supported by Mubarak during his tenure in office; moreover the military has major economic interest and would not want to see a new government that will purge all of the high ranking military officers that supported Mubarak or those that were elevated to high ranking position by Mubarak.

The future of Egypt after Mubarak will likely be shaped by three powers, the military, the protesters, and the sprawling autocratic infrastructure, the regime that Mubarak had established will never disappear entirely and will remain in place dominating the bureaucracy, the police, state media and parts of the economy. Egypt like many other Muslim Middle East countries has no control of their population growth, when Mubarak took office the population was 43 million, it is now 80 million.

When you travel in the small towns and villages of the Middle East as I have,  and you ask a poor man with 10 or more children how could you support that many children he respond by his religious believes, and will tell you God will send me prosperity to support these 10 children. The uneducated will not use logic and common sense and will always resort to God.

It has now been reported by the press that Mubarak has amassed a family fortune in the billions of dollars, most Tyrants and or dictators always during their term as a ruler amass large fortunes, they disperse the fortune to many countries around the world, they establish Bank accounts in many western countries, however as to the US it has become the least favorite since 9/11 it has been reported that Switzerland has recently reported that it is freezing the assets of Mubarak, now British politicians are urging British Banks to do the same.

Money held by many Banks for ex Dictators is a highly profitable enterprise and whenever possible some Banks make every effort to conceal the holder of the large account. Dictators employ the service of experts that teach them how to protect their assets so that when many are seized the dictator will remain wealthy.

One of the most secure venues for protecting their money is the country of Dubai, and Lebanon,
Some of these Banks do not pay the holder any interest on their large account, if they do so it is very small and the Bank holding the assets stand to make considerable profit.

As a world traveler having visited Dubai and Lebanon, I observed that you have more Banks in Lebanon per the population than any country in the World, some of these Banks welcome capital from all sources and they welcome people from around the world including those that are trying to find an escape from hungry Tax collectors such as US, IRS, UK, and other tax authorities. Western governments have difficulties in getting information about account holders, in many none western countries. The same hold true as to Switzerland, however with pressure from US and UK governments and others Switzerland has recently relaxed its rules on strict confidentially, and is willing to divulge the account holder name, if it believes the money deposited by the owner was illegally obtained.

There are many off shore secure Banks many to this day will not divulge the accountant holder therefore as an hedge by someone with a large fortune, the person opens many accounts around the world, here are some countries considered reasonably safe to hide assets from the reach of other governments, Cayman Island, Lebanon, some Arab countries. A major location to Bank secret account, my favorite remains Lebanon, having said that UK has many off shore Banking, that today remains secret.

I do not want to leave my readers with the belief that Mubarak wealth accumulation was acquired by illegal means, his wealth may have been derived from sound investments he has made over the years. Now that the dust has settled after the revolution; the new leaders of Egypt must learn from China. To control its population growth and embark on massive investment in education so that the future generation becomes 99% literate.

UK reporters tend to have accurate analysis as to the events that are now taking place in the Middle East, some US reports will tend to twist their reason that it was Bush invasion of Iraq, that was the worst mistake made and on the contrary it does not contribute to Democracy in the Middle East. Saddam for years was supported by the west so was Mubarak, and the Shah of Iran,  today the west continue to support Kuwait and Saudi Arabia a none democracy countries.

As to Iran the demonstrators are few and the Iran elderly and religious group has a strong hold on the regime, the Iranian regime has not ignored the plight of the poor, whereas Mubarak ignored their demands and it was the poor that started the rebellion.

A true Democracy will never be established in the Middle East the revolution replaces one regime with the next, as was the case in Iran. Right now the Egyptian military controls the country, and they will make sure that the election is rigged, and those elected will remain to favor of the Egyptian military establishment. Moreover the new regime will implement some program to help the poor; their number keeps growing due to an uncontrollable birth rate amongst the poor.

When the US attempts to make changes the special interest group jumps into action to stop Major changes. Obama or the Republican Party are both guilty of irresponsible fiscal policies, the national debt did not occur recently it started 20 years ago with no end in sight.

Many of my investment gurus are now writing articles about the budget and doing their own numbers, which does not add up to that of Obama, his budget makes many optimistic projections as to the US economy in the next ten years.

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