The views expressed in any article published in this blog are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Joseph Foster or Bob Lupoli.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

OIL ECONOMIC TIME BOMB.

FOSTER FEBRUARY 27, 2011
By Joseph Foster, Author, ‘’Destruction of America’’ ‘’Stand up for America’’

The new Arab century has begun, the west has long time ignored the aspiration of the people of the Middle-East and has been focused on its corrupt Government and leaders. There is no single Democratically elected Government in the Middle-East, except Israel, Yes some countries in the region have an election but the candidate in many instance buy the voter by cash to the voter for as little as one dollar per voter.

Now you may ask how does that compare to western democracy, somewhat similar, the candidate offers the voter some goodies when elected in the form of benefits, These candidates never consider where the money will come from, other candidates supported by big money use the air waves Madison avenue style advertising to lure the voter by a one line spin. Many financial gurus including myself were prediction $100.00 per barrel of oil by the year 2013 Libya has changed all of that and now oil and gold are on the upward march.

Saudi Arabia the largest of the oil producer in the Middle-East, its daily production is in excess of nine million barrel as compared to Libya 1.6 million barrel daily production. The threat of Saudi oil will send shock waves around the world and if that flow is interpreted the west will not stand ideally by, without the use of some military intervention although undesirable, it has no choice since $200.00 dollar oil will create a worldwide depression.

Saudi Arabia is ruled by a King all of the members of his government serve at his pleasure, it is a totally none democratic government, it has a high unemployment rate, it provides some social benefit such as free medical and interest free credit for the purchase of a condominium, however the waiting period for such purchase is approximately eighteen years. The king of Saudi Arabic got the message loud and clear from the Egyptian and Libyan revolution and has forthwith increased salaries and benefit by 15% there is a strong possibility of a rebellion taking place in Saudi Arabia. If Saudi oil is disrupted oil may shoot up wards to the $200 per barrel or more, it will cause the US to fall to a double dip recession.

One constituency the US has ignored is the Arab world is the people. American foreign policy towards the Middle-East became focused on the full support of Israeli, regardless of the sentiment of the Arab population which was anti-Israeli, the catalyst or the political earthquake that we are currently witnessing was a massive popular uprising in Tunisia at the end of 2010. Emboldened by the overthrow of the brutal regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the people of Egypt then took to the streets demanding reform. In just 18 days, Egyptian civil society, which we had been told by regional "experts" either did not exist or was spineless, broke the shackles of oppression and overcame a dictator whose regime had become synonymous with abuse and corruption. Egypt had finally been released from 30 years of political imprisonment.

The Shah of Iran was an "island of stability" in the troubled Middle-East, according to the then US president, Jimmy Carter. A short time after these illustrious words was spoken, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was dethroned; Iran had witnessed an Islamic revolution and US policy in the country was found lacking.

At the beginning when the Egyptian protesters were small in number and no one had calculated that number will increase to a full blown revolution; The US administration under Obama,  said Egypt government is stable, reminiscent of the meanderings about Iran, could not have been more wrong.

The islands of stability that the US has traditionally favored are not the same sort that the people of the Arab world have desired. If any clear evidence of US opposition to the people's wishes in the region were needed, the Obama administration willingly obliged on February 18. The UN Security Council (UNSC) held a vote to condemn Israeli settlement building in the occupied West Bank as illegal and to demand an immediate end to all such activity. Settlement building is a particular sore among Palestinians and the wider Arab population. While 14 out of the 15 UNSC members backed the resolution, the US issued its first veto under Obama, damning the Palestinian Territories to further Israeli expansionism - well in keeping with the American spirit of defying global opinion.

Britain our closest ally and a friend of Israeli voted in favor of the resolution. The Arab population will take notice of such vote and it will reinforce in their minds that the US does not maintain a balance policy as to Israel and its Arab neighbors and continues to support Israel. Right now the Gadhafi regime has been isolated by the world and in time the rebels opposing his regime will receive military hardware from the west, NATO forces are reluctant to send troops in the fear that the war will turn into a guerrilla warfare as that of Afghanistan, the difference is Libya has oil and Afghanistan none.

Looking at the best option the U.S recalls the lessons of Somalia where American troops were sent to help and feed starving children and we evacuated that country fifteen months later. Forty two Americans were killed and many injured.

Our best option that will be less costly and more effective,  use NATO Air power to destroy Gadhafi entire Air force,  it could be done in forty eight hours, also destroy all of his tanks, thereafter the rebel will put an end to this Dictator for good.

Libyan currency is printed in the UK and the British government has now prevented any further Libyan currency from being exported to Libya. Given the severe sanction imposed on his regime and rebellion amongst his people, Gadhafi survival days are numbered; he may in time flee the country or offered\ Political asylum by a country on condition that he resigns.

The Arab Israel conflict has to be resolved the key player is the US it is gripped by strong Israel Lobby, 98% of the Arab population and none Arab Muslim are anti-Israel due to its settlement policy, settlement was what expanded America and the Indians were defeated. However that era was during a period when the Indians fought with bow and arrow.

If the conflict is not settled perhaps in fifty years from now there will be a nuclear war in the Middle-East and the State of Israel will be wiped out, that exchange will also kill perhaps 20 million Arabs. The Arabs due to their number will survive. I am perplexed that the Jewish people are constantly being  attacked, first it was by Hitler a German Christian, now it is Muslims against Jews, as to the Muslims their grief has been the creation of a country by the west that did not exist prior to WW11. Prior to the establishment of the State of Israel Arabs were close and friendly towards Jewish people, there is a Historical closeness both Jews and Muslims can trace their origin to Palestine. Let’s us pray that a settlement of the conflict is made in the next decade, thereby preventing a human disaster of horrific proportion.

The cradle of civilization began in the holy land the birth place of Christianity, Islam, and Judaism it was predicted in the bible that one day the battle of Armageddon will occur and that will be the end of the world.

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